COMMENTARY Polls show Venezuelan Dictator-President Nicolás Maduro that he'll inevitably lose a fair election — so he's goading his challenger, Edmundo González, to accept inevitable election fraud.
When dictatorships hold elections, it’s usually the beleaguered opposition candidate who implores the dictator to agree to accept defeat if it comes.
But in Venezuela, it’s the dictator, President Nicolás Maduro, who this week is suddenly begging his main opponent, Edmundo González, to agree to acquiesce if he loses the July 28 vote.
Why? We’ll get to that in a moment — and let’s just say the answer’s got me feeling really nervous.
But first, let’s just say that before this week I was feeling really borne out on Venezuela — where I’ve long contended the best way to topple Maduro’s brutal and disastrous socialist regime was through dogged, long-term electoral negotiation, and not the instant, delusional gratification of threatening (usually from restaurants in Doral) a U.S. military invasion of Caracas.
And I’ve cited templates — especially the 1989-90 electoral ousters of two notorious Latin American dictatorships, the right-wing tyranny of Augusto Pinochet in Chile and the left-wing despotism of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. In both instances, the opposition, the U.S. and the international community slowly but surely convinced the autocrats (or bullied them, in Ortega’s case) to hold free and fair contests and, more important, to swallow the unfavorable results.
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Could that actually be happening in Venezuela this summer? For the moment, anyway, it’s looking more likely than anyone would’ve imagined a few months ago.
Under the pact he signed last fall in the hopes of getting out from under U.S. economic sanctions, Maduro has had no choice (so far) but to accept the candidacy of González — who is leading Maduro in just about every voter poll by as many as 40 points. On Tuesday, Maduro said he’s willing to ink another pact to respect the presidential tally, and he called on González to join him.
And yet … this is where I start to feel I may not be so borne out when this is all over.
Given Maduro's massive poll deficit, rigging Venezuela's vote-counting computers will require more electric power than it takes to mine Bitcoin.
At first glance, it would of course seem a good thing for democracy that Maduro’s pledging to bow to what looks like an inevitable butt-whipping next month. Then, with a bead of cold sweat running down my forehead, I remember a key difference between this moment and 1990.
Which is this: 34 years ago, before those free and fair elections in Chile and Nicaragua, Pinochet and Ortega were pretty sure they’d win.
Voters punked us
I remember, in fact, going door to door in Managua and other Nicaraguan towns in 1990 querying voters about their preferences. My colleagues and I came away fairly convinced that Ortega and his Marxist Sandinista party had the election sewn up — that they could afford to allow a transparent contest. But it turned out those voters were punking us: challenger Violeta Chamorro spanked Ortega by 14 points.
Maduro, on the other hand, has been served alarming notice — not just by polls but by the sea of Venezuelans coming out to rallies for González and opposition leader MarÃa Corina Machado, whose own candidacy Maduro has barred — that the only way he can win is by massive fraud.
Therefore, I’m not so naïve to see democratic spirit behind Maduro’s let’s-respect-the-results gesture.
He’s already disinvited E.U. observers to monitor the July 28 election; he’s made it next to impossible for the millions of Venezuelan expat voters around the world to cast ballots. Now Maduro’s goading González to swear by oath that he’ll embrace a vote Maduro is sure to lose — which simply signals to me that Maduro has resolved to steal that vote.
How he’ll rob it is really the only suspense left for this election. He may still find a specious way to disqualify González from running. Or he may just wait until election day and rig the ballot-counting computers — which in this case would require more processing capacity and electrical power than it takes to mine Bitcoin. Neighboring countries like Brazil might suffer blackouts.
But maybe there is one element of surprise we’re not seeing. Perhaps the opposition, the U.S. and the international community are convincing (or bullying) Maduro to accept his downfall with promises that he and his top henchmen — including his sinister enforcer, Diosdado Cabello — won’t face prison afterward, in Venezuela or anywhere else.
If Maduro signs that deal, then I’ll feel borne out.
